NBA Underbelly

I recently had a fellow GM ask me if its detrimental to have 2 players from the same team on your fantasy squadron.  He made the point that “if one guy plays really well, he’s probably hurting the other guy’s numbers”.  This is an interesting wrinkle in the fantasy world and my viewpoint is that his claim CAN be true, but most times it is actually beneficial to have a team’s top 2 players.

The biggest reason its good to have a pairing of guys (like Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison or Shawn Marion and Steve Nash) from the same team is that its insurance on every game they play.  The chances of both players having poor fantasy numbers in the same game is extremely slim.  ie. If Arenas has a bad game, chances are Jamison had some solid numbers.  The nice thing here is that it doesn’t mean that they both can’t have very good games.  Also, if an injury occurs, then the other player’s role on his team is now increased. ie. if Carmelo Anthony goes down, Allen Iverson is probably going to get a lot more touches and shots. 

With that in mind, I wouldn’t recomend going after 2 players from a team that have similar fantasy contributions.  Ideally you would like to have two guys that do completely different things.  Ideally, you want a distributor and a scorer (ie. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer) or a rebounding scorer along with a 3 point specialist that can get you a few assists (Mike Miller and Pau Gasol).

In acquiring a player to gain this tandem advantage, you can afford to give up a player that contributes the exact same fantasy numbers because of the insurance that the tandem would provide you.  So don’t be afraid to send a couple offers out and take advantage of the only kind of insurance in life that you won’t have to pay for.

For all of you looking for a Buy Low player or two, read below:

Andrea Bargnani

After a couple of stellar performances to start the season, Il Mago has gone cold.  It seems the Raptors are confused about what role is best for Bargnani, but after the feeling out process, Andrea will be playing 30 minutes a game and getting lots of touches by mid season.  Right now, coach Sam Mitchell may be overusing his role players just a touch but when the Raps start hitting some jumpers as a team, Bargnani will follow suit.

Rajan Rondo

This is a Buy-Super-Low as Rondo has barely been a fantasy contributor to this point, but with a few nice games under his belt he has some nice upside.  The Celtics will not be able to play Garnett, Pierce and Allen 40 minutes a game all year.  They wanted to get some chemistry and they definitely have it, but as their minutes come down a bit, guys like Rondo and Posey will have a chance to take some shots and see the ball a little more.  Don’t expect consistent greatness here but Rondo has the ability to put up a triple double if he plays his best and you won’t have to give up anything valuable to get him.

The Chicago Bulls

Its just foolish to think that Hinrich, Deng and Gordon will continue to play like untalented chumps.  These guys are too good and they will get something going soon, so see if you can get one of them for cheap.

OK, I’ll admit it. This one didn’t beat the buzzer, but it was my birthday yesterday so cut me some slack.  The NBA is well underway and a couple things have really stuck out to me.  First, what happened to the Chicago Bulls? Isn’t this the year they were supposed to rise to “real contender” status in the East.  I have no idea what is going on with that team, so please don’t ask.  Another trend that seems to have fantasy GMs pulling their hair out, is the so-called “healthy” stars around the league, that were projected to “miss no time” due to offseason operations/surgeries/aches&pains. 

A short list of some lazy rehabbers:

Gilbert Arenas – Having his knee drained after every meal is apparently shortening his range. Agent Zero is shooting 13% from behind the arc.

Amare Stoudemire – We can forgive his shortened minutes, but sitting out full games just doesn’t seem right.  Also, getting kicked out of his first game back after a weeks long rest is not winning him many points with his fantasy owners.

Jermaine O’Neal – We all thought that he just needed to get his cardio back to form, but his minute cap is keeping him under 15ppg right now. 

Dwayne Wade - This was expected, but every D-Wade fan secretly thought he would comeback early because of his toughness and ability to overcome the odds on a regular basis.

****A minor shoutout to Randy Foye and Ike Diogu who aren’t stars but were budding fantasy sleepers.

Lets get down to some more pickups people should be considering:

Theo Ratliff

This shotblocker is slipping under the radar due to a headcold that kept him out of action for a game and rendered him fairly useless in another.  If you look at his production and minutes during his headache free games, he is earning a spot on your bench. (10ppg, 5.5rebs, 3.5blks)

Francisco Garcia

I’m quite ashamed of myself for not having this breakout stud on an earlier post.  If you can still grab this guy in your league then do it now, and make sure you post something insulting toward the quality of the other GMs in your league.  Also, if you are in a league such as this, you better be no older than 9.  Garcia’s numbers are very solid.  (14ppg, 4reb, 3ass, 1.5stl)

Antoine Wright/Bastjon Nachbar

Its hard to tell who will benefit more from the recent (and completely expected) injury to Vince “Glass Joe” Carter.  Both will have an opportunity to earn their minutes and both will see their production go up.  If you have the room, grab them both to be safe and drop one later on.

Desagna Diop

The unhealthy Eric Dampier has opened the door for this rebounding horse.  He is now playing 25+ minutes a game and will be the Reggie Evans of the Western Conference.  With 8+ rebs a game and almost 3bpg, he deserves a spot on your bench until Dampier gets back.

Jeff Green

With Kevin Durant garnering everyone’s attention, Green is quietly getting accustomed to the NBA game and is being given the minutes to put up above average fantasy numbers.  We don’t really know where his upside is just yet, so he is a great pickup at this point. (11ppg, 4rebs, 48%fg)

Steve Blake

Not much of a fantasy player at all, however he can really help a team in need of assists.  It’s rare to find a guy on the free agent list that averages more than 5apg.  Still though, Im a little disapointed that he made the cut here.

Buy-Low/Sell-High

This weeks Buy-Low player is the aforementioned, Jermaine ONeal.

It is very simple to explain this choice.  HE WILL PLAY MORE, period.  If you look at this guy’s career in Indiana, you will see that his fantasy production is much better than a lot of gms think.  He is a number one scorer that is among the top 5 in blocks, and is a double-double threat every night.  This is not a very common asset to have, and right now is where his stock is at its lowest.  Many foolish GMs believe that Dunleavey’s great start means the end of ONeals dominance.  BS.   If you think Jermaine ONeal will have a fairly healthy year from this point on, then send your offers now and you will reap the rewards in the end.

Check back in on Wednesday/Thursday to find out who my first “Sell-High” player will be.

Happy Birthday to me.

     The name is Carter, Brent Carter and I humbly predict greatness from anyone who decides to read this blog regularly.  For all of you that take part in the odd fantasy basketball league and don’t want to have to filter through the millions of useless advice sites out there, just check in with me every now and again.  I am not claiming to be some sort of psychic fantasy guru, but I’m a sports-a-holic with some decent foresight and the ability to write in a fairly coherent manner.

     One beef I’ve always had with “fantasy advice” blogs, is that half the time the players I am told to watch out for aren’t available in any league.  Is telling me to draft Andrea Bargnani or Danny Granger really giving me anymore insight than I already had?  Those guys will probably have very solid fantasy years, but everyone on the planet knows about these types of “sleepers”.  I always wanted the inside track on a couple players that other GMs wont know about.  This is one of the ways I will try to help all of you this season.

      Enough with the intro, here are a couple legitimate sleepers for you to swipe off the free agent list that should give you an edge in your fantasy pool:

John Salmons – Kings

If this guy is available in your league, pick him up.  With a suspended Ron Artest and an injured Mike Bibby, Johnny Salmons will produce bigtime across the board. He has played 3 games and his line looks like this: 21ppg 5rebs 6ass 53%fg 92%ft. I will now quote one of the greatest movies of all time…. Take Deputy Sam Gerard’s advice and ”Go get him”.

Sidenote: If you haven’t seen Harrison Ford and Tommy Lee Jones in the Fugitive, grow up.

 Rashad Mccants – Timberwolves

The Timberwolves’ number 1 pick from 2005 is my favorite to have a huge jump in fantasy production.  This is simply due to the fact that someone needs to score for them and play beside Randy Foye.  We still don’t know what kind of ceiling this kid has but we do know that 2007 is the season we will found out if he warranted such a high draft position.

Reggie Evans – 76ers

You need a rebounder? You can get this guy off the wire in most leagues and he’ll give you around 7 a game at the very least.  Problem here is he does NOTHING else. Still a decent bench player for most Fantasy Leagues though.

Luis Scola – Rockets

A 27 year old rookie with the Houston Rockets doesn’t sound very appealing, but this cat was widely regarded as the best player not in the NBA in 2006 and it was reported that he would be a starter this season in Houston.  Scola has only played around 18 minutes a game so far, but as he gets more comfortable with his new team you should see his minutes go up and expect about 11ppg and 6.5rebs, with good FG and FT percentages, if he does earn more playing time.

That is all for now, check back soon for some more fantasy insight.

Remember: How well you do in fantasy basketball is a direct reflection of your ability to succeed in life.