Avoiding Playoff Heartbreak
The All-Star Game is nearly upon us and the 07-08 version of the NBA is starting to take some real shape. By now we all know who the real contenders are and who the lottery teams are. Teams like the Timberwolves, Sonics, Knicks and Grizzlies show promise at times but for the most part, they are a free W for any self respecting NBA squadron. On the flip side, you’ve got your obvious contenders in Boston, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix and Detroit, but there are also some very intriguing teams we should not discount
The Lakers, Hornets, Magic and Nuggets are all within striking distance of the top and each of these teams would bring a distinct style to any playoff series. The Nugs have their two stars and the defensive player of the year; The Hornets have two of the most promising young players in the league (Chris Paul and David West); The Magic have a monster in the paint (Dwight Howard) and two sharp shooting forwards that are 6’9; The Lakers have the most dominant player in the league in Kobe Bryant and had one of the most promising young centres (unfortunately for them Andrew Bynum suffered a knee injury and will miss significant time).
The playoffs cannot get here fast enough and mark my words that at least one of these teams will knock off one of the more established contenders come playoff time.
Now I’m sure your thinking, “How the heck does this affect my fantasy team?” and seeing as this is a fantasy blog, I must appreciate that kind of rude impatience. Relevance follows: What each and every one of you want to do is try and avoid acquiring players from the teams you believe will first clinch home court advantage for the playoffs.
Fantasy Playoffs come at an inconvenient time during the NBA season as many coaches do their best to rest their big guns if afforded the opportunity. Therefore, teams not in playoff races, or a race for homecourt, do not normally play their stars as much. This obviously hurts any fantasy team that might be relying on them. As a fantasy season wears on, GMs begin to consider this annual trend which means that for all the wise GMs out there, All Star season is the time to strike.
That being said, today’s Buy Low/Sell High should be quite easily understood:
Sell high
Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen
All 3 of these guys have done enough already to deserve a little more rest in the second half.
Tim Duncan
He will put up great numbers after the All Star break but come Fantasy playoff time, he’ll be letting those old joints heal while Oberto and Bonner hold down the fort.
Rasheed Wallace
Sheed has put together a nice little season under the radar and like Timmy D, he should continue to put up solid numbers until the Pistons have clinched homecourt. Sell him now or reap what you sow.
Jose Calderon
His numbers are outstanding but it looks like TJ will eventually make it back onto the court this season. No matter what they do with their PG roles, Calderon will stop playing the full game and his fantasy numbers will drop. He may have a bit of time to produce for you still, but don’t wait too long or TJ updates will kill your ability to get full value.
Buy Low
Kobe Bryant
I’m not sure if this should qualify as a buy low, but Kobe is going to start to resemble the Kobe of last season now that Bynum is out for a couple months. The Lakers will start to slide with the loss of their big man and they will be fighting for one of the 6,7,8 spots in the West so you can expect Kobe to play a significant role in fantasy. Kobe has been stellar, but he will have the best second half of any fantasy payer in my humble opinion.
Vince Carter
As much as I despise the fragile Carter, I still see him being a big contributor down the stretch for the late blooming Nets. This team always seems to blossom a little later than other Eastern Conference contenders and with the teams now having to pay close attention to Richard Jefferson, Vince should have a lot of big games.
Tracy McGrady
Vince’s cousin seems to have inherited that same injury prone gene, as he is just returning from a knee injury. In the competitive Western Conference the Rockets are in for a dogfight all the way until game 82 and McGrady will tough it out down the stretch even if he is sore. You can probably grab him for a reasonable price if you act soon.
Kevin Durant
The rookie should to continue to slowly improve and in the last week of fantasy he will be facing some teams that would rather rest their better players. That means some big offensive fantasy playoff numbers from this lanky freak.
Click on the “comments” link for any questions you may have
Esteban said,
January 23, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Wow, it is quite unreal that you can classify Kobe as a buy low. Buy Low is for someone who is struggling and not meeting expectations while everyone knows Kobe is going to step up with Bynum out. You completely miss the buy low point here. He should have a category like ‘Get him on your squad’ Kobe and low just don’t mix. So you call Kobe the most dominant player in the game, and then say he is a buy low, man that’s dumb.
Secondly, there are many more buy low guys you can access than these high priced early round picks. Someone like Brad Miller who is back to his all star form under the radar in Sac, or like a David Lee who is poised to be moved or break out due to the fans. These are buy low types not your Kobe, VC or Durant who were are taken in the first two rounds.
jugsy said,
January 23, 2008 at 10:13 pm
just wondering what your thoughts are on players such as: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, or any other Portland Trailblazer, seeing as you didnt mention them… the youngest team in the league, 4th place in the conference, 1st in their division (Jan. 22) and nothing but upside considering the #1 overall pick in last years draft has been on IR since before the season even started.
lost in that might actually be my question: portland, buy low? sell high? keep?