NBA Underbelly

The All-Star Game is nearly upon us and the 07-08 version of the NBA is starting to take some real shape.  By now we all know who the real contenders are and who the lottery teams are.  Teams like the Timberwolves, Sonics, Knicks and Grizzlies show promise at times but for the most part, they are a free W for any self respecting NBA squadron.  On the flip side, you’ve got your obvious contenders in Boston, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix and Detroit, but there are also some very intriguing teams we should not discount 

The Lakers, Hornets, Magic and Nuggets are all within striking distance of the top and each of these teams would bring a distinct style to any playoff series.  The Nugs have their two stars and the defensive player of the year; The Hornets have two of the most promising young players in the league (Chris Paul and David West); The Magic have a monster in the paint (Dwight Howard) and two sharp shooting forwards that are 6′9; The Lakers have the most dominant player in the league in Kobe Bryant and had one of the most promising young centres (unfortunately for them Andrew Bynum suffered a knee injury and will miss significant time). 

The playoffs cannot get here fast enough and mark my words that at least one of these teams will knock off one of the more established contenders come playoff time.

Now I’m sure your thinking, “How the heck does this affect my fantasy team?” and seeing as this is a fantasy blog, I must appreciate that kind of rude impatience.  Relevance follows:  What each and every one of you want to do is try and avoid acquiring players from the teams you believe will first clinch home court advantage for the playoffs. 

Fantasy Playoffs come at an inconvenient time during the NBA season as many coaches do their best to rest their big guns if afforded the opportunity.  Therefore, teams not in playoff races, or a race for homecourt, do not normally play their stars as much. This obviously hurts any fantasy team that might be relying on them.  As a fantasy season wears on, GMs begin to consider this annual trend which means that for all the wise GMs out there, All Star season is the time to strike.

That being said, today’s Buy Low/Sell High should be quite easily understood:

Sell high

Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen

All 3 of these guys have done enough already to deserve a little more rest in the second half.

Tim Duncan

He will put up great numbers after the All Star break but come Fantasy playoff time, he’ll be letting those old joints heal while Oberto and Bonner hold down the fort.

Rasheed Wallace

Sheed has put together a nice little season under the radar and like Timmy D, he should continue to put up solid numbers until the Pistons have clinched homecourt.  Sell him now or reap what you sow.

Jose Calderon

His numbers are outstanding but it looks like TJ will eventually make it back onto the court this season.  No matter what they do with their PG roles, Calderon will stop playing the full game and his fantasy numbers will drop.  He may have a bit of time to produce for you still, but don’t wait too long or TJ updates will kill your ability to get full value.

Buy Low

Kobe Bryant

I’m not sure if this should qualify as a buy low, but Kobe is going to start to resemble the Kobe of last season now that Bynum is out for a couple months.  The Lakers will start to slide with the loss of their big man and they will be fighting for one of the 6,7,8 spots in the West so you can expect Kobe to play a significant role in fantasy.  Kobe has been stellar, but he will have the best second half of any fantasy payer in my humble opinion.

 Vince Carter

As much as I despise the fragile Carter, I still see him being a big contributor down the stretch for the late blooming Nets.  This team always seems to blossom a little later than other Eastern Conference contenders and with the teams now having to pay close attention to Richard Jefferson, Vince should have a lot of big games. 

Tracy McGrady

Vince’s cousin seems to have inherited that same injury prone gene, as he is just returning from a knee injury. In the competitive Western Conference the Rockets are in for a dogfight all the way until game 82 and  McGrady will tough it out down the stretch even if he is sore. You can probably grab him for a reasonable price if you act soon.

Kevin Durant

The rookie should to continue to slowly improve and in the last week of fantasy he will be facing some teams that would rather rest their better players.  That means some big offensive fantasy playoff numbers from this lanky freak.

Click on the “comments” link for any questions you may have

First off, Happy New Year and all the best in 2008 (unless you happen to be in one of my fantasy pools, than replace the word “best” with “worst”).

If anyone can appreciate the holiday season that is quickly ending, it is the sports fanatic.  With the NFL’s last regular season games, millions of College Football Bowl games, tons of  hockey (including an intriguing outdoor game in Buffalo), and loads of NBA games on New Years Eve, we have been more than spoiled.  By the way, did anyone see that “throw back shorts” game in LA?  There’s something sinister inside me that really enjoys watching a ton of trendy, cool, style-conscious NBAers walk around awkwardly during warmup because they feel naked in those short shorts.  I know most of you enjoyed that too.

 Lets get on to a couple roster moves that could have a fantasy impact.

1. The Bulls firing of Scott Skiles could be the spark that seems long overdue.  I have been telling you all to grab Hinrich, Gordon and Deng for awhile now and I will continue to do so.  Jim Boylan gave Gordon the 6th man role he used to thrive in and he is playing Manu-esque.  This team WILL turn it around, I hope.

2. Utah trades Gordon Giricek for Kyle Korver.  A minor deal that should impact the Sixers moreso than the Jazz.  Korver will hit his two 3’s a game, but dont expect a huge change in his fantasy production.  Giricek shouldn’t receive too many minutes as Philly was simply trading for his expiring contract, but look for Louis Williams to get a lot more PT.  He has produced well all year when given the chance, and if he can stay on the court for 25-30 mins a game, he should be a 14 ppg, 4apg, 3 rpg  which is valuable in deeper leagues.

Here is a look at a few Free Agents that may be avaliable in your league:

Shallow League:

Anderson Varejao

He will not put up All Star numbers, but he is getting a lot of minutes and is a great rebounder. He will grab 7-10 rebs a game and can put up 10-15 pts on good %s, so give him a look.

Mid-Range League:

Kurt Thomas

This grisled veteran has been on a defensive tear since healing up from a sore knee.  Over the past 4 games he is averaging 13 rebs and 2 blks a game.  He doesn’t do much else, but he does not hurt you anywhere either.  If you need blocks and rebounds, go get this 60 year old grinder.

Deep Leagues:

Antonio Daniels

He was dropped in most leagues but should be back in no time now and continue to produce the way that he was.  Monitor his comeback and if he has a decent first game back, then grab him.

Louis Williams

For reasons as written above.

Once again, feel free to write in any questions pertaining to trades or pickups if you have them (via the comments link).