Dynamic Duo’s / Buy-Low
I recently had a fellow GM ask me if its detrimental to have 2 players from the same team on your fantasy squadron. He made the point that “if one guy plays really well, he’s probably hurting the other guy’s numbers”. This is an interesting wrinkle in the fantasy world and my viewpoint is that his claim CAN be true, but most times it is actually beneficial to have a team’s top 2 players.
The biggest reason its good to have a pairing of guys (like Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison or Shawn Marion and Steve Nash) from the same team is that its insurance on every game they play. The chances of both players having poor fantasy numbers in the same game is extremely slim. ie. If Arenas has a bad game, chances are Jamison had some solid numbers. The nice thing here is that it doesn’t mean that they both can’t have very good games. Also, if an injury occurs, then the other player’s role on his team is now increased. ie. if Carmelo Anthony goes down, Allen Iverson is probably going to get a lot more touches and shots.
With that in mind, I wouldn’t recomend going after 2 players from a team that have similar fantasy contributions. Ideally you would like to have two guys that do completely different things. Ideally, you want a distributor and a scorer (ie. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer) or a rebounding scorer along with a 3 point specialist that can get you a few assists (Mike Miller and Pau Gasol).
In acquiring a player to gain this tandem advantage, you can afford to give up a player that contributes the exact same fantasy numbers because of the insurance that the tandem would provide you. So don’t be afraid to send a couple offers out and take advantage of the only kind of insurance in life that you won’t have to pay for.
For all of you looking for a Buy Low player or two, read below:
Andrea Bargnani
After a couple of stellar performances to start the season, Il Mago has gone cold. It seems the Raptors are confused about what role is best for Bargnani, but after the feeling out process, Andrea will be playing 30 minutes a game and getting lots of touches by mid season. Right now, coach Sam Mitchell may be overusing his role players just a touch but when the Raps start hitting some jumpers as a team, Bargnani will follow suit.
Rajan Rondo
This is a Buy-Super-Low as Rondo has barely been a fantasy contributor to this point, but with a few nice games under his belt he has some nice upside. The Celtics will not be able to play Garnett, Pierce and Allen 40 minutes a game all year. They wanted to get some chemistry and they definitely have it, but as their minutes come down a bit, guys like Rondo and Posey will have a chance to take some shots and see the ball a little more. Don’t expect consistent greatness here but Rondo has the ability to put up a triple double if he plays his best and you won’t have to give up anything valuable to get him.
The Chicago Bulls
Its just foolish to think that Hinrich, Deng and Gordon will continue to play like untalented chumps. These guys are too good and they will get something going soon, so see if you can get one of them for cheap.
Sell Before the Slide
Welcome to the weekday edition of the Underbelly. Today I’ll be discussing and recommending some players that all of you out there should be shopping around in trade offers. I will list 4 guys in a tiered fashion (ie. top player, B player, Role Player, Wire Pickup). Keep in mind that these are recommendations of who you should be offering in an attempt to get guys on the way up or players that have proven to be very consistent and on a similar level.
Remember that all of you can comment on my advice or even ask any specific questions by using the “comments” link located to the bottom right of each article.
On with the show:
Top Tier Sell
Tracy McGrady
At first glance this might seem puzzling, however, you must consider the numerous season’s that McGrady has had a blinding start, only to get injured or slump at midseason. Tracy McGrady has the name and the game to trade for almost any player in the league, so try packaging him with a mid range starter for a guy like Dirk Nowitzki, Lebron James, or Kobe Bryant. You may have to throw in 2nd or 3rd tier players but it will be worth it. All 3 have been more consistent fantasy producers and much more durable over the past few seasons. Give it a shot.
Second Tier
Al Harrington
Big Al is off to a nice little start as he is averaging 20ppg, 7rebs and 2ass with 2.5 threes made a game. This is a guy where his numbers may simply overwhelm some GMs. If you offer him up for a younger scorer and a rebounding specialist, your team could reap the rewards. Try going after guys like Marvin Williams, Danny Granger or Jamal Crawford and make sure you get a nice role player with them (ie. rebounder, assist guy, or 3point shooter). Harrington is a hot and cold player, and I don’t think that after 10 seasons of inconsistency, he is suddenly going to have a full season of steady consistent production.
Role Player
Mike Dunleavy
The long awaited arrival of Dunleavy junior is finally here, and you can’t help but feel good for the guy. However, feeling good does not mean you shouldn’t get rid of him. Along with Danny Granger, Dunleavy has benefitted greatly from Jermaine O’Neal’s minute reduction, but with O’Neal getting healthier and the gut feeling I have the Dunleavy will disappear for stretches, I say trade him. His numbers are pretty enough to get you a steady vet that you can rely on, or even a package for some solid youngsters with upside. Whatever you do, don’t expect his production to stay where it is.
Waiver Level
Francisco Garcia
Fresh off my sleeper list, Senor Garcia’s name comes up again. The emergence of John Salmons, the immediate return of Ron Artest and the eventual return of Mike Bibby makes this one fairly obvious. Garcia is putting up nice numbers now but they are nowhere near Salmons, which means when Sacramento’s big gun (Bibby) is back, you have to assume that it’s Garcia who will suffer most. Trade him for anything that you won’t consistently find on the waiver wire because thats where Garcia will be in 6-8 weeks. If you can’t get anything for him, just ride him out because he will still contribute until Bibby returns.
Talk to you Sunday.
The Extremely Late Sunday Evening Buzzer Beater
OK, I’ll admit it. This one didn’t beat the buzzer, but it was my birthday yesterday so cut me some slack. The NBA is well underway and a couple things have really stuck out to me. First, what happened to the Chicago Bulls? Isn’t this the year they were supposed to rise to “real contender” status in the East. I have no idea what is going on with that team, so please don’t ask. Another trend that seems to have fantasy GMs pulling their hair out, is the so-called “healthy” stars around the league, that were projected to “miss no time” due to offseason operations/surgeries/aches&pains.
A short list of some lazy rehabbers:
Gilbert Arenas – Having his knee drained after every meal is apparently shortening his range. Agent Zero is shooting 13% from behind the arc.
Amare Stoudemire – We can forgive his shortened minutes, but sitting out full games just doesn’t seem right. Also, getting kicked out of his first game back after a weeks long rest is not winning him many points with his fantasy owners.
Jermaine O’Neal – We all thought that he just needed to get his cardio back to form, but his minute cap is keeping him under 15ppg right now.
Dwayne Wade - This was expected, but every D-Wade fan secretly thought he would comeback early because of his toughness and ability to overcome the odds on a regular basis.
****A minor shoutout to Randy Foye and Ike Diogu who aren’t stars but were budding fantasy sleepers.
Lets get down to some more pickups people should be considering:
Theo Ratliff
This shotblocker is slipping under the radar due to a headcold that kept him out of action for a game and rendered him fairly useless in another. If you look at his production and minutes during his headache free games, he is earning a spot on your bench. (10ppg, 5.5rebs, 3.5blks)
Francisco Garcia
I’m quite ashamed of myself for not having this breakout stud on an earlier post. If you can still grab this guy in your league then do it now, and make sure you post something insulting toward the quality of the other GMs in your league. Also, if you are in a league such as this, you better be no older than 9. Garcia’s numbers are very solid. (14ppg, 4reb, 3ass, 1.5stl)
Antoine Wright/Bastjon Nachbar
Its hard to tell who will benefit more from the recent (and completely expected) injury to Vince “Glass Joe” Carter. Both will have an opportunity to earn their minutes and both will see their production go up. If you have the room, grab them both to be safe and drop one later on.
Desagna Diop
The unhealthy Eric Dampier has opened the door for this rebounding horse. He is now playing 25+ minutes a game and will be the Reggie Evans of the Western Conference. With 8+ rebs a game and almost 3bpg, he deserves a spot on your bench until Dampier gets back.
Jeff Green
With Kevin Durant garnering everyone’s attention, Green is quietly getting accustomed to the NBA game and is being given the minutes to put up above average fantasy numbers. We don’t really know where his upside is just yet, so he is a great pickup at this point. (11ppg, 4rebs, 48%fg)
Steve Blake
Not much of a fantasy player at all, however he can really help a team in need of assists. It’s rare to find a guy on the free agent list that averages more than 5apg. Still though, Im a little disapointed that he made the cut here.
Buy-Low/Sell-High
This weeks Buy-Low player is the aforementioned, Jermaine ONeal.
It is very simple to explain this choice. HE WILL PLAY MORE, period. If you look at this guy’s career in Indiana, you will see that his fantasy production is much better than a lot of gms think. He is a number one scorer that is among the top 5 in blocks, and is a double-double threat every night. This is not a very common asset to have, and right now is where his stock is at its lowest. Many foolish GMs believe that Dunleavey’s great start means the end of ONeals dominance. BS. If you think Jermaine ONeal will have a fairly healthy year from this point on, then send your offers now and you will reap the rewards in the end.
Check back in on Wednesday/Thursday to find out who my first “Sell-High” player will be.
Happy Birthday to me.
Talent VS Playing Time/Buy Low-Sell High
The NBA season is upon us and if you are in a fantasy league, you know that these next crucial weeks are when those few ‘diamonds in the rough’ will be luckily snagged from the free agent list. Do not have another year where you end up saying “Why didn’t I grab that guy when I could have? Did I really think dropping Tyronn Lue would hurt me that much?”. One of the best quotes you will ever hear comes from the poker legend, Doyle Brunson, “Fortune favours the bold.” However, I feel the need to supplement that with a quote I have come up with on my own, “Failure haunts the utterly stupid”. Keep both quotes in mind.
That being said, I am following my last article up with a small list of some more players that have a solid chance at being great sleeper picks. You may or may not notice that these sleepers tend to be guys that are very young or had yet to earn substantial playing time before this season.
The number one priority you should have when picking a player up is not how good or talented he is. The main focus should be on his playing time. This is not to say that every pylon in the league who plays 25 minutes a game deserves a roster spot, it just means that you should only look at the players who will be given lots of playing time and then evaluate which among them are the most talented.
There is no point in having guys like Paul Millsap and Jason Maxiell if they are only going to play 12 minutes a game. However, if Carlos Boozer and Rasheed Wallace were to get themselves into an Ironman Death Match resulting in some lengthy injuries, well Millsap and Maxiell would then become studs.
Lets take a look at some guys who should see solid minutes and have the opportunity to break out:
Brendan Haywood
While he is a well known player, he is still available in many leagues and Haywood is a prime example of what more playing time can do for individual fantasy production. With Etan Thomas no longer healthy enough to cut into his floor time, Haywood is putting up the kind of numbers you want from your centre position (10ppg, 14rebs, 3blks). I don’t care how many games the Wizards lose, if Haywood’s minutes stay where they are, he is a steal of a pickup.
Kyle Lowry
This 1st rounder out of Villanova has been overlooked by many during their fantasy drafts, but if you consider the fact that he is putting up solid numbers (13ppg, 4reb, 5ass) while Damon Stoudamire is still healthy, it is hard to imagine him being available in many leagues for any extended period of time. Mighty Mouse will be hurt at some point this year (see: every other season) and when that happens, Lowry’s value skyrockets. Get him while you can.
Ike Diogu
This young horse is playing 20+ minutes a game so far and he seems to be settling in very nicely in Indiana. He plays a physical game and shoots a high percentage (13ppg, 5rebs, 57%fg) which warrants a bench spot. Toss in the fact that he is playing behind shaky knees Jermaine O’Neal, and it seems that he is one very feasible injury away from being a significant fantasy contributor.
Grant Hill
A move to Phoenix caused some GM’s to think Hill might be eased into that cheerleader role Jalen Rose seemed to have locked up in 2006. However, this guy continues to fight through injuries and produce when he plays. After the first few games, Hill is averaging over 30 minutes a game and is a solid all around fantasy performer (11 ppg, 4rebs, 2ass, 1stl). Pick him up now because his body could explode at any moment.
Buy Low, Sell High
Every week I will be posting a few players you should be trying to acquire or dump via the trade. NBA Underbelly’s very first Buy-Low player is…… drumroll……
Gerald Wallace.
Rationale:
The assumption is that when a team adds another scorer, whoever was doing the damage for them before will naturally take a fantasy hit because he has to share the ball. In the case of the Bobcats, this assumption is DEAD WRONG (Marv Levy voice).
Wallace is a guy that can contribute across the board and while his PPG may take a small hit, the acquisition of Richardson will allow for less double teams, more 3s, more assists and a better FG%. Wallace was not able to stay healthy last year and is off to a slow start this year, but as some chemistry develops with J-Rich, watch out for this guy to creep into the top 15.
Fantasy Bball Help is Here
The name is Carter, Brent Carter and I humbly predict greatness from anyone who decides to read this blog regularly. For all of you that take part in the odd fantasy basketball league and don’t want to have to filter through the millions of useless advice sites out there, just check in with me every now and again. I am not claiming to be some sort of psychic fantasy guru, but I’m a sports-a-holic with some decent foresight and the ability to write in a fairly coherent manner.
One beef I’ve always had with “fantasy advice” blogs, is that half the time the players I am told to watch out for aren’t available in any league. Is telling me to draft Andrea Bargnani or Danny Granger really giving me anymore insight than I already had? Those guys will probably have very solid fantasy years, but everyone on the planet knows about these types of “sleepers”. I always wanted the inside track on a couple players that other GMs wont know about. This is one of the ways I will try to help all of you this season.
Enough with the intro, here are a couple legitimate sleepers for you to swipe off the free agent list that should give you an edge in your fantasy pool:
John Salmons – Kings
If this guy is available in your league, pick him up. With a suspended Ron Artest and an injured Mike Bibby, Johnny Salmons will produce bigtime across the board. He has played 3 games and his line looks like this: 21ppg 5rebs 6ass 53%fg 92%ft. I will now quote one of the greatest movies of all time…. Take Deputy Sam Gerard’s advice and ”Go get him”.
Sidenote: If you haven’t seen Harrison Ford and Tommy Lee Jones in the Fugitive, grow up.
Rashad Mccants – Timberwolves
The Timberwolves’ number 1 pick from 2005 is my favorite to have a huge jump in fantasy production. This is simply due to the fact that someone needs to score for them and play beside Randy Foye. We still don’t know what kind of ceiling this kid has but we do know that 2007 is the season we will found out if he warranted such a high draft position.
Reggie Evans – 76ers
You need a rebounder? You can get this guy off the wire in most leagues and he’ll give you around 7 a game at the very least. Problem here is he does NOTHING else. Still a decent bench player for most Fantasy Leagues though.
Luis Scola – Rockets
A 27 year old rookie with the Houston Rockets doesn’t sound very appealing, but this cat was widely regarded as the best player not in the NBA in 2006 and it was reported that he would be a starter this season in Houston. Scola has only played around 18 minutes a game so far, but as he gets more comfortable with his new team you should see his minutes go up and expect about 11ppg and 6.5rebs, with good FG and FT percentages, if he does earn more playing time.
That is all for now, check back soon for some more fantasy insight.
Remember: How well you do in fantasy basketball is a direct reflection of your ability to succeed in life.
