Avoiding Playoff Heartbreak
The All-Star Game is nearly upon us and the 07-08 version of the NBA is starting to take some real shape. By now we all know who the real contenders are and who the lottery teams are. Teams like the Timberwolves, Sonics, Knicks and Grizzlies show promise at times but for the most part, they are a free W for any self respecting NBA squadron. On the flip side, you’ve got your obvious contenders in Boston, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix and Detroit, but there are also some very intriguing teams we should not discount
The Lakers, Hornets, Magic and Nuggets are all within striking distance of the top and each of these teams would bring a distinct style to any playoff series. The Nugs have their two stars and the defensive player of the year; The Hornets have two of the most promising young players in the league (Chris Paul and David West); The Magic have a monster in the paint (Dwight Howard) and two sharp shooting forwards that are 6′9; The Lakers have the most dominant player in the league in Kobe Bryant and had one of the most promising young centres (unfortunately for them Andrew Bynum suffered a knee injury and will miss significant time).
The playoffs cannot get here fast enough and mark my words that at least one of these teams will knock off one of the more established contenders come playoff time.
Now I’m sure your thinking, “How the heck does this affect my fantasy team?” and seeing as this is a fantasy blog, I must appreciate that kind of rude impatience. Relevance follows: What each and every one of you want to do is try and avoid acquiring players from the teams you believe will first clinch home court advantage for the playoffs.
Fantasy Playoffs come at an inconvenient time during the NBA season as many coaches do their best to rest their big guns if afforded the opportunity. Therefore, teams not in playoff races, or a race for homecourt, do not normally play their stars as much. This obviously hurts any fantasy team that might be relying on them. As a fantasy season wears on, GMs begin to consider this annual trend which means that for all the wise GMs out there, All Star season is the time to strike.
That being said, today’s Buy Low/Sell High should be quite easily understood:
Sell high
Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen
All 3 of these guys have done enough already to deserve a little more rest in the second half.
Tim Duncan
He will put up great numbers after the All Star break but come Fantasy playoff time, he’ll be letting those old joints heal while Oberto and Bonner hold down the fort.
Rasheed Wallace
Sheed has put together a nice little season under the radar and like Timmy D, he should continue to put up solid numbers until the Pistons have clinched homecourt. Sell him now or reap what you sow.
Jose Calderon
His numbers are outstanding but it looks like TJ will eventually make it back onto the court this season. No matter what they do with their PG roles, Calderon will stop playing the full game and his fantasy numbers will drop. He may have a bit of time to produce for you still, but don’t wait too long or TJ updates will kill your ability to get full value.
Buy Low
Kobe Bryant
I’m not sure if this should qualify as a buy low, but Kobe is going to start to resemble the Kobe of last season now that Bynum is out for a couple months. The Lakers will start to slide with the loss of their big man and they will be fighting for one of the 6,7,8 spots in the West so you can expect Kobe to play a significant role in fantasy. Kobe has been stellar, but he will have the best second half of any fantasy payer in my humble opinion.
Vince Carter
As much as I despise the fragile Carter, I still see him being a big contributor down the stretch for the late blooming Nets. This team always seems to blossom a little later than other Eastern Conference contenders and with the teams now having to pay close attention to Richard Jefferson, Vince should have a lot of big games.
Tracy McGrady
Vince’s cousin seems to have inherited that same injury prone gene, as he is just returning from a knee injury. In the competitive Western Conference the Rockets are in for a dogfight all the way until game 82 and McGrady will tough it out down the stretch even if he is sore. You can probably grab him for a reasonable price if you act soon.
Kevin Durant
The rookie should to continue to slowly improve and in the last week of fantasy he will be facing some teams that would rather rest their better players. That means some big offensive fantasy playoff numbers from this lanky freak.
Click on the “comments” link for any questions you may have
New Year, Same Game
First off, Happy New Year and all the best in 2008 (unless you happen to be in one of my fantasy pools, than replace the word “best” with “worst”).
If anyone can appreciate the holiday season that is quickly ending, it is the sports fanatic. With the NFL’s last regular season games, millions of College Football Bowl games, tons of hockey (including an intriguing outdoor game in Buffalo), and loads of NBA games on New Years Eve, we have been more than spoiled. By the way, did anyone see that “throw back shorts” game in LA? There’s something sinister inside me that really enjoys watching a ton of trendy, cool, style-conscious NBAers walk around awkwardly during warmup because they feel naked in those short shorts. I know most of you enjoyed that too.
Lets get on to a couple roster moves that could have a fantasy impact.
1. The Bulls firing of Scott Skiles could be the spark that seems long overdue. I have been telling you all to grab Hinrich, Gordon and Deng for awhile now and I will continue to do so. Jim Boylan gave Gordon the 6th man role he used to thrive in and he is playing Manu-esque. This team WILL turn it around, I hope.
2. Utah trades Gordon Giricek for Kyle Korver. A minor deal that should impact the Sixers moreso than the Jazz. Korver will hit his two 3’s a game, but dont expect a huge change in his fantasy production. Giricek shouldn’t receive too many minutes as Philly was simply trading for his expiring contract, but look for Louis Williams to get a lot more PT. He has produced well all year when given the chance, and if he can stay on the court for 25-30 mins a game, he should be a 14 ppg, 4apg, 3 rpg which is valuable in deeper leagues.
Here is a look at a few Free Agents that may be avaliable in your league:
Shallow League:
Anderson Varejao
He will not put up All Star numbers, but he is getting a lot of minutes and is a great rebounder. He will grab 7-10 rebs a game and can put up 10-15 pts on good %s, so give him a look.
Mid-Range League:
Kurt Thomas
This grisled veteran has been on a defensive tear since healing up from a sore knee. Over the past 4 games he is averaging 13 rebs and 2 blks a game. He doesn’t do much else, but he does not hurt you anywhere either. If you need blocks and rebounds, go get this 60 year old grinder.
Deep Leagues:
Antonio Daniels
He was dropped in most leagues but should be back in no time now and continue to produce the way that he was. Monitor his comeback and if he has a decent first game back, then grab him.
Louis Williams
For reasons as written above.
Once again, feel free to write in any questions pertaining to trades or pickups if you have them (via the comments link).
Daily vs Weekly / Buy Low – Sell High
The decision of making a Fantasy basketball league daily or weekly is sometimes decided by the flip of a coin and some important things are often looked over. My experience in both has educated me on a few key differences that everyone should be aware of. Initially, the reason to go with a daily league is because GMs want something to do each night and this style definitely supports that, however, there are some crucial things that you all should know if you are going with a daily league, rather than a weekly league:
1. Injuries don’t have less of an impact, they actually have more. Look at it this way, if you have Richard Hamilton go down with a 3 week injury in a weekly league, you would suffer for the first week and then plug your best bench player into his spot for the following two. This means that on the whole your team was handicapped about 60pts, 13 ass, and 15 rebs for the first week, but after that you are only being handicapped those totals MINUS the totals that your bench player is now contributing. In a daily league, there are no such thing as bench players, because every player is in the lineup for almost every game they play, and so instead of being able to soften the injury blow…. you now have a roster spot getting you 0s in all categories for as many weeks as that person is out. The real catch is that you obviously are not going to drop a good player, so the only option is to hope that your team can now make up for the 60pts, 15 rebs, 13 ass, 6 stls and good pcts, and that just is not likely in most cases.
2. Depth, depth, depth. This one is very simple. In a weekly league, generally speaking your top 5 players do a lot of the work for you and if they all out perform the opponents top 5, then you have a good chance of winning. In a daily league, you need to have your bottom 5 out perform the other teams bottom 5 EQUALLY as much as you want your stars to perform. This is simply because of the number of total player games being played. In a weekly league if you have 10 roster spots (and 4 bench) and everyone has 3 games a week, then thats’s 30 games. Your top 5 players makeup 15 of those 30 games (obviously very significant). In daily, if you have 10 roster spots (and 4 bench), you will probably total around 40 games, which means that your stars impact on the final outcome has gone down, and the impact of your bottom 5 has obviously gone way up. Tip: In daily leagues, do not be scared to trade a star for 3 or 4 good starters. 9 out of 10 times your team will be getting better.
3. Deciding Factors: You need to decide what is important to you. Do you want to be in a league that reflects what is important in a real sport, or are you in it just to have something to do, as often as you can??? Both styles have pros and cons, and each individual is going to value things differently. Personally, I would rather be in a league where the stars have a little more impact and where the bad luck of injuries can’t handicap you for an extended period of time. I do see the value in being able to make lineup changes everyday though as it will keep the interest in your league high at all times.
Make sure you take all things into account when deciding.
Onto some advice:
Buy-Low – Corey Maggette
The Clippers are an interesting team this year after suffering so many serious injuries. With guys like Brand and Livngston out for extended periods of time, and now injuries to their back court in Cassell and Mobley, someone is going to reap the fantasy rewards. That man is Coret Maggette. The ball will go through Maggette nearly every time the Clippers cross half, and having Kaman as a (re-)breakout low-post player is only opening things up for Maggette even more. Kaman provides the presence without the ball demands, and that is a formula for some big games for Maggette. Since coming back in late November hes yet to score under 20. Look for that to continue.
Sell High – Danny Granger
Granger has been a stud so far this year and my recommendation to trade him now does not mean I think he is going to tank it from here. It just means that with the extremely gradual return of Jermaine O’Neal to the lineup, there just are not going to be as many plays run for him or as many rebounds available. The only way his productions stays where it is, is if the Pacers somehow start blowing teams out and becoming a contender, OR if O’Neal goes down with another injury. I wouldn’t bank on either but I will also say that I never trust O’Neal to stay healthy. Point is that you can trade him straight up for a much safer stud right now. Go do it.
Dynamic Duo’s / Buy-Low
I recently had a fellow GM ask me if its detrimental to have 2 players from the same team on your fantasy squadron. He made the point that “if one guy plays really well, he’s probably hurting the other guy’s numbers”. This is an interesting wrinkle in the fantasy world and my viewpoint is that his claim CAN be true, but most times it is actually beneficial to have a team’s top 2 players.
The biggest reason its good to have a pairing of guys (like Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison or Shawn Marion and Steve Nash) from the same team is that its insurance on every game they play. The chances of both players having poor fantasy numbers in the same game is extremely slim. ie. If Arenas has a bad game, chances are Jamison had some solid numbers. The nice thing here is that it doesn’t mean that they both can’t have very good games. Also, if an injury occurs, then the other player’s role on his team is now increased. ie. if Carmelo Anthony goes down, Allen Iverson is probably going to get a lot more touches and shots.
With that in mind, I wouldn’t recomend going after 2 players from a team that have similar fantasy contributions. Ideally you would like to have two guys that do completely different things. Ideally, you want a distributor and a scorer (ie. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer) or a rebounding scorer along with a 3 point specialist that can get you a few assists (Mike Miller and Pau Gasol).
In acquiring a player to gain this tandem advantage, you can afford to give up a player that contributes the exact same fantasy numbers because of the insurance that the tandem would provide you. So don’t be afraid to send a couple offers out and take advantage of the only kind of insurance in life that you won’t have to pay for.
For all of you looking for a Buy Low player or two, read below:
Andrea Bargnani
After a couple of stellar performances to start the season, Il Mago has gone cold. It seems the Raptors are confused about what role is best for Bargnani, but after the feeling out process, Andrea will be playing 30 minutes a game and getting lots of touches by mid season. Right now, coach Sam Mitchell may be overusing his role players just a touch but when the Raps start hitting some jumpers as a team, Bargnani will follow suit.
Rajan Rondo
This is a Buy-Super-Low as Rondo has barely been a fantasy contributor to this point, but with a few nice games under his belt he has some nice upside. The Celtics will not be able to play Garnett, Pierce and Allen 40 minutes a game all year. They wanted to get some chemistry and they definitely have it, but as their minutes come down a bit, guys like Rondo and Posey will have a chance to take some shots and see the ball a little more. Don’t expect consistent greatness here but Rondo has the ability to put up a triple double if he plays his best and you won’t have to give up anything valuable to get him.
The Chicago Bulls
Its just foolish to think that Hinrich, Deng and Gordon will continue to play like untalented chumps. These guys are too good and they will get something going soon, so see if you can get one of them for cheap.
Sell Before the Slide
Welcome to the weekday edition of the Underbelly. Today I’ll be discussing and recommending some players that all of you out there should be shopping around in trade offers. I will list 4 guys in a tiered fashion (ie. top player, B player, Role Player, Wire Pickup). Keep in mind that these are recommendations of who you should be offering in an attempt to get guys on the way up or players that have proven to be very consistent and on a similar level.
Remember that all of you can comment on my advice or even ask any specific questions by using the “comments” link located to the bottom right of each article.
On with the show:
Top Tier Sell
Tracy McGrady
At first glance this might seem puzzling, however, you must consider the numerous season’s that McGrady has had a blinding start, only to get injured or slump at midseason. Tracy McGrady has the name and the game to trade for almost any player in the league, so try packaging him with a mid range starter for a guy like Dirk Nowitzki, Lebron James, or Kobe Bryant. You may have to throw in 2nd or 3rd tier players but it will be worth it. All 3 have been more consistent fantasy producers and much more durable over the past few seasons. Give it a shot.
Second Tier
Al Harrington
Big Al is off to a nice little start as he is averaging 20ppg, 7rebs and 2ass with 2.5 threes made a game. This is a guy where his numbers may simply overwhelm some GMs. If you offer him up for a younger scorer and a rebounding specialist, your team could reap the rewards. Try going after guys like Marvin Williams, Danny Granger or Jamal Crawford and make sure you get a nice role player with them (ie. rebounder, assist guy, or 3point shooter). Harrington is a hot and cold player, and I don’t think that after 10 seasons of inconsistency, he is suddenly going to have a full season of steady consistent production.
Role Player
Mike Dunleavy
The long awaited arrival of Dunleavy junior is finally here, and you can’t help but feel good for the guy. However, feeling good does not mean you shouldn’t get rid of him. Along with Danny Granger, Dunleavy has benefitted greatly from Jermaine O’Neal’s minute reduction, but with O’Neal getting healthier and the gut feeling I have the Dunleavy will disappear for stretches, I say trade him. His numbers are pretty enough to get you a steady vet that you can rely on, or even a package for some solid youngsters with upside. Whatever you do, don’t expect his production to stay where it is.
Waiver Level
Francisco Garcia
Fresh off my sleeper list, Senor Garcia’s name comes up again. The emergence of John Salmons, the immediate return of Ron Artest and the eventual return of Mike Bibby makes this one fairly obvious. Garcia is putting up nice numbers now but they are nowhere near Salmons, which means when Sacramento’s big gun (Bibby) is back, you have to assume that it’s Garcia who will suffer most. Trade him for anything that you won’t consistently find on the waiver wire because thats where Garcia will be in 6-8 weeks. If you can’t get anything for him, just ride him out because he will still contribute until Bibby returns.
Talk to you Sunday.
The Extremely Late Sunday Evening Buzzer Beater
OK, I’ll admit it. This one didn’t beat the buzzer, but it was my birthday yesterday so cut me some slack. The NBA is well underway and a couple things have really stuck out to me. First, what happened to the Chicago Bulls? Isn’t this the year they were supposed to rise to “real contender” status in the East. I have no idea what is going on with that team, so please don’t ask. Another trend that seems to have fantasy GMs pulling their hair out, is the so-called “healthy” stars around the league, that were projected to “miss no time” due to offseason operations/surgeries/aches&pains.
A short list of some lazy rehabbers:
Gilbert Arenas – Having his knee drained after every meal is apparently shortening his range. Agent Zero is shooting 13% from behind the arc.
Amare Stoudemire – We can forgive his shortened minutes, but sitting out full games just doesn’t seem right. Also, getting kicked out of his first game back after a weeks long rest is not winning him many points with his fantasy owners.
Jermaine O’Neal – We all thought that he just needed to get his cardio back to form, but his minute cap is keeping him under 15ppg right now.
Dwayne Wade - This was expected, but every D-Wade fan secretly thought he would comeback early because of his toughness and ability to overcome the odds on a regular basis.
****A minor shoutout to Randy Foye and Ike Diogu who aren’t stars but were budding fantasy sleepers.
Lets get down to some more pickups people should be considering:
Theo Ratliff
This shotblocker is slipping under the radar due to a headcold that kept him out of action for a game and rendered him fairly useless in another. If you look at his production and minutes during his headache free games, he is earning a spot on your bench. (10ppg, 5.5rebs, 3.5blks)
Francisco Garcia
I’m quite ashamed of myself for not having this breakout stud on an earlier post. If you can still grab this guy in your league then do it now, and make sure you post something insulting toward the quality of the other GMs in your league. Also, if you are in a league such as this, you better be no older than 9. Garcia’s numbers are very solid. (14ppg, 4reb, 3ass, 1.5stl)
Antoine Wright/Bastjon Nachbar
Its hard to tell who will benefit more from the recent (and completely expected) injury to Vince “Glass Joe” Carter. Both will have an opportunity to earn their minutes and both will see their production go up. If you have the room, grab them both to be safe and drop one later on.
Desagna Diop
The unhealthy Eric Dampier has opened the door for this rebounding horse. He is now playing 25+ minutes a game and will be the Reggie Evans of the Western Conference. With 8+ rebs a game and almost 3bpg, he deserves a spot on your bench until Dampier gets back.
Jeff Green
With Kevin Durant garnering everyone’s attention, Green is quietly getting accustomed to the NBA game and is being given the minutes to put up above average fantasy numbers. We don’t really know where his upside is just yet, so he is a great pickup at this point. (11ppg, 4rebs, 48%fg)
Steve Blake
Not much of a fantasy player at all, however he can really help a team in need of assists. It’s rare to find a guy on the free agent list that averages more than 5apg. Still though, Im a little disapointed that he made the cut here.
Buy-Low/Sell-High
This weeks Buy-Low player is the aforementioned, Jermaine ONeal.
It is very simple to explain this choice. HE WILL PLAY MORE, period. If you look at this guy’s career in Indiana, you will see that his fantasy production is much better than a lot of gms think. He is a number one scorer that is among the top 5 in blocks, and is a double-double threat every night. This is not a very common asset to have, and right now is where his stock is at its lowest. Many foolish GMs believe that Dunleavey’s great start means the end of ONeals dominance. BS. If you think Jermaine ONeal will have a fairly healthy year from this point on, then send your offers now and you will reap the rewards in the end.
Check back in on Wednesday/Thursday to find out who my first “Sell-High” player will be.
Happy Birthday to me.
Talent VS Playing Time/Buy Low-Sell High
The NBA season is upon us and if you are in a fantasy league, you know that these next crucial weeks are when those few ‘diamonds in the rough’ will be luckily snagged from the free agent list. Do not have another year where you end up saying “Why didn’t I grab that guy when I could have? Did I really think dropping Tyronn Lue would hurt me that much?”. One of the best quotes you will ever hear comes from the poker legend, Doyle Brunson, “Fortune favours the bold.” However, I feel the need to supplement that with a quote I have come up with on my own, “Failure haunts the utterly stupid”. Keep both quotes in mind.
That being said, I am following my last article up with a small list of some more players that have a solid chance at being great sleeper picks. You may or may not notice that these sleepers tend to be guys that are very young or had yet to earn substantial playing time before this season.
The number one priority you should have when picking a player up is not how good or talented he is. The main focus should be on his playing time. This is not to say that every pylon in the league who plays 25 minutes a game deserves a roster spot, it just means that you should only look at the players who will be given lots of playing time and then evaluate which among them are the most talented.
There is no point in having guys like Paul Millsap and Jason Maxiell if they are only going to play 12 minutes a game. However, if Carlos Boozer and Rasheed Wallace were to get themselves into an Ironman Death Match resulting in some lengthy injuries, well Millsap and Maxiell would then become studs.
Lets take a look at some guys who should see solid minutes and have the opportunity to break out:
Brendan Haywood
While he is a well known player, he is still available in many leagues and Haywood is a prime example of what more playing time can do for individual fantasy production. With Etan Thomas no longer healthy enough to cut into his floor time, Haywood is putting up the kind of numbers you want from your centre position (10ppg, 14rebs, 3blks). I don’t care how many games the Wizards lose, if Haywood’s minutes stay where they are, he is a steal of a pickup.
Kyle Lowry
This 1st rounder out of Villanova has been overlooked by many during their fantasy drafts, but if you consider the fact that he is putting up solid numbers (13ppg, 4reb, 5ass) while Damon Stoudamire is still healthy, it is hard to imagine him being available in many leagues for any extended period of time. Mighty Mouse will be hurt at some point this year (see: every other season) and when that happens, Lowry’s value skyrockets. Get him while you can.
Ike Diogu
This young horse is playing 20+ minutes a game so far and he seems to be settling in very nicely in Indiana. He plays a physical game and shoots a high percentage (13ppg, 5rebs, 57%fg) which warrants a bench spot. Toss in the fact that he is playing behind shaky knees Jermaine O’Neal, and it seems that he is one very feasible injury away from being a significant fantasy contributor.
Grant Hill
A move to Phoenix caused some GM’s to think Hill might be eased into that cheerleader role Jalen Rose seemed to have locked up in 2006. However, this guy continues to fight through injuries and produce when he plays. After the first few games, Hill is averaging over 30 minutes a game and is a solid all around fantasy performer (11 ppg, 4rebs, 2ass, 1stl). Pick him up now because his body could explode at any moment.
Buy Low, Sell High
Every week I will be posting a few players you should be trying to acquire or dump via the trade. NBA Underbelly’s very first Buy-Low player is…… drumroll……
Gerald Wallace.
Rationale:
The assumption is that when a team adds another scorer, whoever was doing the damage for them before will naturally take a fantasy hit because he has to share the ball. In the case of the Bobcats, this assumption is DEAD WRONG (Marv Levy voice).
Wallace is a guy that can contribute across the board and while his PPG may take a small hit, the acquisition of Richardson will allow for less double teams, more 3s, more assists and a better FG%. Wallace was not able to stay healthy last year and is off to a slow start this year, but as some chemistry develops with J-Rich, watch out for this guy to creep into the top 15.
Fantasy Bball Help is Here
The name is Carter, Brent Carter and I humbly predict greatness from anyone who decides to read this blog regularly. For all of you that take part in the odd fantasy basketball league and don’t want to have to filter through the millions of useless advice sites out there, just check in with me every now and again. I am not claiming to be some sort of psychic fantasy guru, but I’m a sports-a-holic with some decent foresight and the ability to write in a fairly coherent manner.
One beef I’ve always had with “fantasy advice” blogs, is that half the time the players I am told to watch out for aren’t available in any league. Is telling me to draft Andrea Bargnani or Danny Granger really giving me anymore insight than I already had? Those guys will probably have very solid fantasy years, but everyone on the planet knows about these types of “sleepers”. I always wanted the inside track on a couple players that other GMs wont know about. This is one of the ways I will try to help all of you this season.
Enough with the intro, here are a couple legitimate sleepers for you to swipe off the free agent list that should give you an edge in your fantasy pool:
John Salmons – Kings
If this guy is available in your league, pick him up. With a suspended Ron Artest and an injured Mike Bibby, Johnny Salmons will produce bigtime across the board. He has played 3 games and his line looks like this: 21ppg 5rebs 6ass 53%fg 92%ft. I will now quote one of the greatest movies of all time…. Take Deputy Sam Gerard’s advice and ”Go get him”.
Sidenote: If you haven’t seen Harrison Ford and Tommy Lee Jones in the Fugitive, grow up.
Rashad Mccants – Timberwolves
The Timberwolves’ number 1 pick from 2005 is my favorite to have a huge jump in fantasy production. This is simply due to the fact that someone needs to score for them and play beside Randy Foye. We still don’t know what kind of ceiling this kid has but we do know that 2007 is the season we will found out if he warranted such a high draft position.
Reggie Evans – 76ers
You need a rebounder? You can get this guy off the wire in most leagues and he’ll give you around 7 a game at the very least. Problem here is he does NOTHING else. Still a decent bench player for most Fantasy Leagues though.
Luis Scola – Rockets
A 27 year old rookie with the Houston Rockets doesn’t sound very appealing, but this cat was widely regarded as the best player not in the NBA in 2006 and it was reported that he would be a starter this season in Houston. Scola has only played around 18 minutes a game so far, but as he gets more comfortable with his new team you should see his minutes go up and expect about 11ppg and 6.5rebs, with good FG and FT percentages, if he does earn more playing time.
That is all for now, check back soon for some more fantasy insight.
Remember: How well you do in fantasy basketball is a direct reflection of your ability to succeed in life.
